Homework 3

4.12

Question

Pasted image 20241012120536.png

Proof
Say S is the event that someone comes to a full stop, so P(S)=.25. We are given n=20 suggesting a binomial model.

a.

P(X6)=x=06(20x).25x.7520x.7858

b.

P(X=6)=(20x).256.7514.1686

c.

P(X6)=1P(X<6)=1x=05(20x).25x.7520x.3828

4.14

Question

Pasted image 20241012121927.png

Proof
Say the event S is the event a purchasing customer wants the paperback version. So then P(S)=.6=p with varying n per part (this is a binomial distribution).

a. Here n=10:

P(X6)=1P(X<6)=1y=05(10y).6y.410y.6331

b. Still n=10:

μ=np=10.6=6 customersσ=np(1p)=10.6.41.5492 customers

Thus:

(μσ,μ+σ)=(4.4508,7.5492)

Thus:

P(Xone σ)=P(μσXμ+σ)=P(4.4508X7.5492)=P(5X7)=x=57(10x).6x.410x.6665

c. All customers will get what they want if X>7 doesn't happen, along with X<3. So we want to know:

P((X>7)(X<3))=P(X7X3)=P(3X7)=x=37(10x).6x.410x.8204

4.24

Question

Pasted image 20241012123413.png

Proof
a. We require that X=12 to all agree on a guilty verdict, or X=0 for a non-guilty verdict. Hence:

P(guilty)=P(X=12)=(1212)p12(1p)1212=p12

Similarly:

P(not guilty)=P(X=0)=(120)p0(1p)120=(1p)12

b. Clearly when p1 then P(guilty) is higher, making P(not guilty) lower. On the opposite, when p0 then P(not guilty) is higher, making P(guilty) lower. This makes sense since if there's a high probability an individual juror would come to one verdict or the other, then all jurors voting unanimously for one or the other would have to favor that same verdict.

c. We require that now X9 so then:

P(X9)=1P(X<9)=1x=08(12x)px(1p)12x

Note that this is greater than the answer from (a), mainly due to the fact that we have a 1 out in the front, and typically p12 will be a very small value.

4.66

Question

Pasted image 20241012124302.png
Pasted image 20241012124308.png

Proof
Here we have a negative binomial distribution. Here p=.2 and X is the number of individuals administered.

a. Here r=1 so:

P(X=5)=(40).21.851.08192

b. The experiment happening 5 times is exactly the same as when the experiment has 4 non-adverse reaction subjects. That's because SSSSF is the only possible event of this happening. This is the same probability from (a), so it's .08192.

c.

P(X5)=x=14(x10).21.8x1.5904

d.

μX=rp=1.2=5 individuals

For counting the number of people without and adverse reaction Y, that would be Y=X1, which is linear, so then:

μY=μX1=4 individuals

e. Here:

σX=r1pp2=1.8.224.4721

So then:

μXσX=0.4721 individuals,μX+σX=8.4721 individuals

Then:

P(μXσXXμX+σX)=P(0.4721X8.4721)=P(1X8)=x=18(x10).21.8x1.8322

4.68

Question

Pasted image 20241012160819.png

Proof
First, notice that we can say that 3X5 since if it's any less then there's not even 3 children in the family, and any more means that there were already 3 children of the same sex as it was. Thus, we can consider each case separately. All of these are negative binomial where r=3 and varying p.

For Xboy:

P(3Xboy5)=x=35(x12).513.49x3.5187

For Xgirl:

P(3Xgirl5)=x=35(x12).493.51x3.4813

Checking, adding the two gives 1, as expected. In general:

P(X=x)=P(Xgirl=x)+P(Xboy=x)=(x12).513.49x3+(x12).493.51x3

Giving the following Probability Distribution, PMF:

X 3 4 5
p(X=x) .2503 .3750 .3747

Question 6

Question

Pasted image 20241012161530.png

Proof
This is a negative binomial distribution with r=3 and p=0.062. Let X denote the number of scans required.

a.

μX=rp=3.06248.3871 scans

b. This number is just Y=X1 since we just ignore the last scan. That way it's before the target is detected for the full 3 times. Then μY=μX1=47.3871 scans.

c. Now this is a normal binomial distribution with n=30 and p=.062 still. Then if X is the number of times we detect the target then:

P(X2)=1P(X<2)=1x=01(30x).062x(1.062)30x.7002

d. Now this is back to being a negative binomial distribution, where r=1 and p=.062. Then:

P(X=15)=(140).0621(1.062)151.0253

4.38

Question

Pasted image 20241012162925.png

Proof
a.

P(X=4)=e4.34.344!.1933

b.

P(X4)=1P(X<4)=1x=03e4.34.3xx!.6228

c. Since successive weekdays are independent, then:

P(X1=4X2=4)=P(X=4)2.0373P(X14X24)=P(X4)2.3879

4.44

Question

Pasted image 20241012163818.png
Pasted image 20241012163825.png

Proof
a. Here t=1 year so then μ=4.8 rainstorms. As such:

P(X6)=1P(X<6)=1x=05e4.84.8xx!.3490P(X10)=1x=09e4.84.8xx!.0251

b. Now t=3 years so μ=14.4 rainstormsσ=μ3.7947 rainstorms. Then that means that we want to see μ+σ18.195rainstorms. So:

P(Xμ+σ)=P(X18.195)=1P(X18)=1x=018e14.414.4xx!.1408

c. In general:

P(X1)=1P(X<1)=1P(X=0)=1eλt(λt)00!=1eλt

We know that P(X1)=.999 so then:

1e4.8t=.999t=14.8ln(.001)1.439 years

4.46

Question

Pasted image 20241012165109.png

Proof
Here λ=5 where t is in hours.

a. t=1 so then since μ=λt=5:

P(X=4)=e5544!.1755

b.

P(X4)=1P(X<4)=1x=03e55xx!.7350

c. Here now t=.75 so μ=3.75, so

μX=μ=3.75 people

4.90

Question

Pasted image 20241012165428.png

Proof
Here μ=λA where A is the yardage. Then snice A=πr2 then here μ=2πr2 grasshoppers. Thus:

P(X1)=1P(X<1)=1P(X=0)=1eμμ00!=1e2πr2=.99

This requires that:

1e2πr2=.99r=12πln(.01).8561 yards